I Thessalonians 5:20, 21

Do not despise expounding of scripture, but scrutinize all things. Hold fast that which is right.

Malo periculosam libertatem quam quietum servitium

- I prefer liberty with danger to peace with slavery.

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See also Kerux Replies at Wordpress.com where all future missives will also be posted.

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

Force Majeure

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Don't know what force majeure means? Force majeure is what the United States is going to claim when it reneges on the unpayable debt it has run up in the course of the last several decades by living beyond its means. All those who hold those billions of increasingly worth less dollars will be left holding completely worthless dollars.

Force majeure is a French term meaning 'greater or superior force."

Force majeure also means "an unforeseeable or uncontrollable course of events that excuses a party from fulfilling a contract." [Times-Chambers Dictionary of Foreign Words and Phrases, 1996]

The debt of the United States government, in foreign trade - its current accounts, in its internal budget, in it's long term domestic obligations, such as Medicaid and Social Security, run in the trillions of dollars. Add to that the current and most likely future bailouts of just about every Wall Street banking firm "too big to fail" and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, AIG, WaMu, and all those we can't even remember, and you have qazillions owed. To put this amount into perspective: if you had spent $1,000,000 a day, from the birth of Christ until today, you would have only spent about 732 billion dollars.

This debt simply can not be repaid.

It will not be repaid. Once those holding the "Old Maid" of currencies, the US dollar, realize this, they will insist on getting paid in some tangible asset, such as natural resources, gold, silver or some other hard asset.

At that point, the United States government, through the US Treasury, will invoke force majeure, and repudiate its debt service.

With the declaration of force majeure, the US dollar would be essentially - or de facto - worthless, and everyone everywhere will refuse to accept US federal reserve notes in payment for any debt, obligation or payment for services rendered or good sold.

This de facto repudiation of its obligation by the US Treasury will result in economic chaos, perhaps worldwide, as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. Chaos will certainly be the result within the US. The stock and bond markets will crash. A banking holiday will be called, and all banks closed, similar to the banking holiday imposed by Franklin Delano Rossenvelt during the Great Depression of the 1930s. All financial transactions in the dollar will cease and the Treasury would formally de-monetize the US dollar, declaring it worthless.

Most likely, because of and with the excuse of the economic chaos created, martial law will be declared. Federal troops, under the new laws recently enacted, for the first time in American history, will be used to patrol US streets maintaining order.

When this happens, the United States of America, as we knew it, will cease to exist.

"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed. Everybody knows the war is over. Everybody knows the good guys lost. Everybody knows the fight was fixed. The poor stay poor, the rich get rich. That's how it goes, Everybody knows" -Leonard Cohen

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

The US Treasury (or any other agency in the US) has any obligation to redeem US$ or US$ denominated assets for anything other than US$.

However, foereigners are under no obligation to accept US$ as payment for their goods exported/services rendered to US, nor are they under any obligation to conduct their trade with other countries in US$. Hence while they may lose their savings held in US$, they can refuse to hold their future savings in US$ and/or refuse to indirectly lend to the US by accepting US$ as payment. It will happen when they find an alternate payment system that is widely acceptable (which will be very soon) and not because the US Treasury defaults on any of its current obligations.

The US did default, when they went off the gold standard. Can default, in future, when they have to make payments in something other than US$, but not today.

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